Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
